On Climate Action and Impossible Treaties

In 1922 IRA leader and Irish politician Michael Collins was sent to negotiate a treaty between the Irish Republic and Great Britain following the Irish War of Independence.

The 'negotiations' were a sham. The British Government had already decided the terms and just needed someone to sign the agreement. To not sign would have simply led to the War continuing. Not a good outcome for the Irish Army that Collins knew was on the edge of collapse.

But by signing the Treaty, Collins signed away the Irish Republic and gave away much of the north of the island. What other choice did he have though?

Of course, his ratification of the treaty led directly to the Irish Civil War after the Irish Government split over the issue. Thousands died because they could not recognise that a treaty negotiated between those who have everything to lose, and those who have nothing to lose is always going to be compromised.

Had Collins not ratified the treaty, Ireland would have been crushed. But by signing the treaty, Collins knew that he had started a civil war. It was an impossible negotiation. But Collins himself stated that while the treaty did not give them the Irish Republic, it gave them a stepping stone towards that Republic.

He turned out to be correct.

So, what does this have to do with Australia 100 years later? A strangely large amount.

The Limits of Power

Following the election of the Albanese Government, Labor promised to legislate a target to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. While this was supported electorally, most international analysts argue that it is not enough. But Labor was not for turning.

Enter the Greens.

With four Lower House MPs and 12 Senators, the Greens are now the most significant third party block in the Parliament. You would think this would give them a lot of power. And it does; but with this power comes responsibility, limits and consequences.

The Blocking of Bills

In 2009 the Greens refused to pass the Rudd Government's completely inadequate, pointless and flawed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). This was a brave decision at the time, and the hope was that it would lead Rudd to try to compromise.

It did not. And the Rudd Government fell. Something that Rudd himself still hasn't come to terms with.

He still likes to blame the Greens for all the failures in climate policy since then. To be very clear, the failure lies with the reactionaries in both major parties who are too scared to commit to any type of forward thinking policy because it might impact on their investments.

But that aside, the actions the Greens took in 2009 had consequences. And while Australia had a brief fling with semi-progressive politics under the Gillard Government, a Government that did deliver effective Climate Action for a time, the failure of the CPRS meant that the Climate Wars continued. That is, the war between doing something about the climate, and doing nothing.

The decade since the fall of the Gillard Government has seen too many battles lost and opportunities missed in this area. Something had to give.

Ending the Climate Wars

Labor's 43% target is inadequate and their subsidising of fossil fuel and other polluting industries is irresponsible.

But the target is a starting point. A stepping stone towards what is required. And while it could be argued that it's too late for just a stepping stone, while the rising oceans are about to sweep us all away, the alternative is to just drown in the rising seas, unmoved.

Labor has argued that the target is the target, with or without the passing of the Climate Bill.

So what could the Greens do?

They could not change the target, Labor would not have ever considered any proposal to scrap new oil and gas projects and the conservative media was lurking around looking for anything they could to bring down both the Government and the Greens. And attempt to continue the Climate Wars that they have made so much profit off.

If the Greens refused to pass the Bill, nothing would have changed. Oil and Gas projects would still be funded, the target would still be inadequate and the Climate Wars would still be fought. And the Environmental movement would be crushed.

What other choice did the Greens have?

They are now free to move on to fight other, winnable, battles. The Climate Wars are over, the battle against Oil, Gas and Coal projects now starts.

And that is a battle that won't only be fought in Parliament.

The Next Steps, and avoiding a Greens Civil War

Already there are some calling the Greens traitors or sell outs. There are people calling for the party to get rid of the leadership and start again. These are people who would prefer to blow up the party instead of treating it as a single tool in the climate battles.

Whether the Labor Party is Machiavellian enough to have designed their Climate Bill to try to blow up the Greens is unknown. Just as it's not known if the British negotiations over the Anglo-Irish treaty were specifically designed to ensure an Irish Civil War. But either way, the Greens cannot afford to shatter over this. Doing so would only help those in the fossil fuel industries.

The Greens must now steady themselves for the coming battles. The battles against Oil, Gas and Coal can be won, both on the floor of Parliament and through more direct means. This is where the 2nd phase of the war can be won.

This is now a war between doing something adequate, and something inadequate.

In Parliament, the Greens must now oppose anything that looks like funding new fossil fuel projects, as they have stated they will do. But this cannot be the end of it. They must look for every opportunity to increase the 43% target; to enshrine ambition in law.

Outside of Parliament the people must continue to advocate and demand this greater ambition from Labor and other Governments. This is through direct action methods employed by groups such as Blockade Australia, less direct methods such as continued Climate Strikes and the classic (yet still underrated) actions of letter and other writing, of which I hope this is a small part.

Artists, writers and other creatives must create the story of the world that could be if our ambition was just a little higher, and the consequences of the world that will be if it isn’t.

In short, the war must focus on the real enemy: those who advocate for doing the bare minimum. The Liberal Party is now irrelevant, the people have won that war.

The people have allies within the current Government, but they will be forced to reckon now with a media who believes the war is completely over, and who will actively fight against any further action being taken. Those in power within the current Government are likely to side with the media. The people must make this impossible for them by taking control of the narrative.

If the Labor Party believes another ‘Greenslide’ is inevitable, they will be forced to act to save their majority. The only way they can do this is by being more ambitious on climate.

It is for this reason that the Greens cannot implode now, while battles are still to be fought.

Now the first battle is won, the power of the Greens to win further battles cannot be overstated. But they will need unity and they will need the people behind them to do it.

When Britain and Ireland signed the treaty 100 years ago, Britain ultimately wound up victorious, because people could not see the treaty as the opportunity it was, and the effects of that are still being felt today.

We cannot let the same thing happen here.

The Climate Bill is our opportunity. We need to embrace it.